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It’s also important to realize that during acute infection, the immune system has not yet created the antibodies that lower viral load, at least for a few years.

Americans really want to know their HIV risk during fellatio—even more so than during anal sex.

Sure, you can Google the subject, but the results may further confuse and scare you.

A report by the Black AIDS Institute states that African-American same-gender-loving men have a 25 percent chance (which is one in four odds) of contracting HIV by the time they’re 25 years old—and a 60 percent chance by the time they’re 40.

Other researchers have predicted that half of all gay men in America who are 22 years old today will be HIV positive by the time they’re 50.

Statisticians, in case you’re curious, do have a formula for cumulative risk: 1 – ( ( 1 – x ) ^ y ) in which x is the risk per exposure (as a decimal) and y is the number of exposures.

But let’s face it, many of us can’t tabulate the tip at a restaurant, so it’s unlikely we’ll whip out the advanced algebra during sexytime.

A quick example: According to CDC data, 84 percent of HIV-positive women contract the virus through heterosexual contact.

As researchers including Judith Auerbach, Ph D, an adjunct professor at the University of California, San Francisco point out, the phrase “heterosexual contact” masks the prevalence of anal sex among straight couples and the role of sexual violence—which can be significant because exposure to gender inequality and intimate partner violence triples a woman’s risk for STIs and increases her chance of getting HIV 1.5 times. The oft-cited numbers for the risk of HIV transmission take into account one instance of exposure. Risk accumulates through repeated exposures, though you can’t simply add up the probabilities of each exposure to score your total risk.

Against All Odds by Trenton Straube Can you get HIV from oral sex?

That’s probably one of the most common questions AIDS service providers and doctors get asked.

Yet not even the Nate Silvers of the world would be wise to gauge HIV risk based on statistics. Numbers and probabilities can be miscalculated and misinterpreted.